Friday 16 December 2011

EUROZONE MESS DEEPENS STILL FURTHER.

Last week, David Cameron vetoed a Eurozone 'rescue package' and was roundly condemned by other major European leaders. Since then, the proposed package seems to have hit the buffers and the French are about to have their own credit rating downgraded. Cameron's action in keeping the UK out of the Euro-mess, has been totally vindicated.

In the wake of all of this, the French, our traditional cross-channel adversaries, have set about trying to lay the blame for everything at the door of the UK. Apparently, we are the ones responsible for the impending failure of the rescue plan and it isn't the French credit rating that should be downgraded but ours.

What this contretemps has demonstrated, once and for all, is that the French hate the British; they always have done and always will do. Nothing would please them more than to see the UK economy, and the UK itself, collapse. Sadly for them, it looks as though they are destined to be the ones on the receiving end yet again and, this time, the British will not be riding to their rescue. This time, they have to rely on another of their old enemies, Germany. Currently, it's reported that Mrs Merkel is anxiously trying to organise another summit meeting soon after Christmas, at which the UK will be present, though not allowed to vote on rescue proposals for the Euro. What such a meeting will achieve is anyone's guess, though it's unlikely to achieve much of real substance.

The real issue is what Germany will eventually do when they realise there is no simple fix; when they accept that the problem is at least as much political as economic. Will they allow their own economy, and Government, to be dragged down by the crisis afflicting the Eurozone, or will they eventually realise that they have to protect themselves from it ? I would bet that, in the final analysis, they will take the latter course and find a solution that saves them from catastrophe. What shape this action will take is another question but it seems there are really only two options; either Germany withdraws from the Euro, possibly along with France and a few of the economically stronger nations, or the same group remains in the Eurozone and the rest withdraw. Either way, Germany will be a winner and the rest will, at best, tread water.

Sarkozy is clearly one of the walking dead; Merkel knows that her position is weakening by the day. No other leader in Europe, other than our own dear 'Dave' has a status to compare with these two and, indeed, how many Presidents or Prime Ministers could anyone in the street actually name ? It occurs to me that, in the end, it may be that the saviour of Europe will be as before; the UK will ride to the rescue but on its own terms, not theirs. Cameron may end up in a much more powerful position than anyone could possibly have imagined just a few days ago.

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