UKIP MAY HOLD THE KEY TO EASTLEIGH BY-ELECTION.

Today, the good people of Eastleigh in Hampshire are trotting off to the polls to elect a new Member of Parliament, someone who will replace the disgraced Chris Huhne. They seem to have a huge choice to pick from, there being 14 candidates though one suspects that most will earn no more than a handful of votes, a bit of local publicity and a lost deposit.

 

Up at the sharp end of the poll are the Liberal Democrats, Conservatives, Labour and UKIP. Although Eastleigh is an old railway town that should really be meat and drink to Labour, it's been a Liberal Democrat seat in recent years and before that was staunch Tory; Labour's chances of victory today, which are not helped by their choice of candidate, are vanishingly slim. From the outset, it was said that the real fight would be between the Tories and Liberal Democrats though it seems that events may be turning against both.

 

Added to the Liberal's embarrassment over Huhne, we now have a sexual scandal involving a former chief executive of the party and which has spread to embrace other senior party members who appear to have failed to act appropriately when they became aware of allegations some time ago. Tension between the Liberals and their Tory coalition partners allied to the ongoing financial mess in which the country is mired is hardly helping either side though Labour have been unable to exploit any of this.

 

The real 'fly in the ointment' has been UKIP. Given our financial mess, something as much to do with 13 years of Labour government as with any 'greedy bankers', the general dislike of the European Union and disillusionment with all 3 main political parties, it's perhaps no surprise that voters have been looking elsewhere. The beneficiaries have, without doubt, been UKIP, which has polled very strongly in recent days and they are now reported to have the support of more than a fifth of the electorate.

 

UKIP will certainly take a chunk of their votes from the Conservatives and may well stop that party from winning a seat that they should. The Liberals, who appeared to be on the way to a narrow victory a few days ago, may yet find that the current scandal stops them from winning it, too. If that happens, perhaps the Tories might just sneak home or, astonishingly, could UKIP pull off one of the biggest shocks in British electoral history ?

 

By this time tomorrow, all will be revealed. I haven't been this interested in a by-election for decades !