UKIP's SUCCESS MEANS MISERY FOR OTHERS.

UKIP's success in Thursday's by-elections has certainly stirred things up.

In Clacton, it was always expected that the former sitting MP, Douglas Carswell, would win after switching his allegiance from the Conservative party to UKIP. What wasn't quite expected was that he'd increase his share of the vote and gain the support of almost 60% of voters, nor that the Liberal Democrats would be all-but wiped out, receiving only a miserly 483 votes.

In the Manchester constituency of Heywood and Middleton, a seat previously held with a comfortable majority by Labour, UKIP were expected to do well and, perhaps, get as much as 30% of the vote. In the event, they gained very nearly 40% and almost won the seat; Labour held on by their finger tips with a majority of just 617. To add to Labour's concerns, this constituency was held with a majority of over 11,000 in 2005 , a figure which reduced to 6,000 in 2010 and has now all-but disappeared.

Inevitably, all 3 main parties have done their usual 'head-in-the-sand' act and explained UKIP's success away as a blip or nothing to worry about. They remind us that this was 'only a by-election', that 'turn-out was low' or that 'there were special circumstances'. Who do they think they're kidding ? For the Conservatives, 'Dave' maintains a stance of telling us that a vote for UKIP is really a vote for Miliband, hoping that this thought will deter Tories from defecting. He also refuses, point-blank, to alter his own course or contemplate any sort of deal with his bete noire. 

Labour have always believed that UKIP were a threat to the Tories and, probably, of benefit to themselves; they've simply ignored the perceived right wing interlopers. However, a few recent by-elections and now the Heywood result have woken them up to the truth - that UKIP are a threat to any sitting MP who has failed to represent his or her constituency effectively or has simply 'toed the party line'.

As for the LibDems, UKIP are no direct threat to them. However, the LibDem vote has already been severely damaged by their coalition with the Conservatives and now an upswell in support for UKIP, seen as the 'anti-politics party', might well see their share of the vote fall to levels last experienced decades ago.

Immediately following the results Miliband minor has come under criticism for his leadership, or lack of it. Indeed, there's now renewed chatter about whether or not he's the right man for the job and whether the public see him as a potential Prime Minister. The strongly expressed opinion is that they do not. However, replacing him at this late stage in the Parliament is almost impossible, so Labour are stuck with him, like it or not, and the best that they might achieve is to bring in one or 2 old senior figures to bolster their front line.

Clegg is also untouchable, for now, as leader of the LibDems and it's difficult to see what he, or any alternative leader, could do that would make much difference to their short-term prospects. They are simply bracing themselves for a shocking result in next May's General Election and must contemplate losing many, perhaps half, of their current Parliamentary strength.

Which leaves the Conservatives and their incumbent, 'Dave'. They have another serious test to face in November when the electors of the Rochester and Strood constituency in Kent go to the polls. This is a seat previously held by another Tory defector, Mark Reckless, and it's likely to provide more pain for the Conservatives. Labour and the LibDems are likely to make little effort to win the seat and will leave it to Conservatives and UKIP to fight over, which may make life even more problematic for the Tories. Defeat for the Conservatives will ring alarm bells at Tory Central and will bring more and louder calls for the party hierarchy to respond to the UKIP threat. Recent polling suggests that UKIP will, indeed, win this seat as well though whether they'll hold it at the General Election is a different matter. Nonetheless, while 'Dave's position is not currently under threat, defeat in Rochester and failure to respond to the clamour from his back benches may well see him overthrown after May's elections.

Interestingly, all three main parties may well have new leaders by this time next year. There are jolly times ahead !